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Posted Feb. 21, 2008

Pool B might as well be called Pool Bubble. No matter what your record is, you have no automatic bid to shoot for and, short of going 25-0, there’s always the chance you might get left out.

It’s a different feeling when February rolls around for most schools. No matter how much of an up-and-down season you’ve had to that point, most times you can put together a string of wins with a few weeks left, make your conference tournament, stay hot for another week to win the league and rest easy knowing you’re in the NCAA Tournament.

Doug Lambert has contributed more than one key game-ending performance for Aurora.

It’s not so easy in Pool B, however. “You get that nervous feeling – what happens if they don’t respect our strength of schedule, what have you,” says Aurora men’s coach James Lancaster. “I think we’ll be a little more nervous this year.”

The Spartans have reason to be more nervous in 2008. Last year at this time they were rolling to a 25-2 overall record on Selection Sunday and in 2005 they won the Northern Illinois-Iowa Conference’s automatic bid. But that league disbanded and some of its members joined former Lake Michigan Conference members to form the Northern Athletics Conference. New conferences have a two-year waiting period before they can get an automatic bid, and this is the last year the NATHC will have to spend swimming in Pool B.

“It’s really different because when you have the AQ (automatic qualifier) you like to build toward that in terms of working on the fundamentals,” says Lancaster. “You want the young kids to work along and be strong at the end of the year.”

“It’s not a matter of liking it. It’s a matter of doing what we have to do,” said Moravian men’s coach Jim Walker, whose team is one of two Pool B teams in this week’s men’s regional rankings. The other is Maryville (Tenn.), who we talk to elsewhere in this week's column.

Moravian is one of three teams tied for first in the Landmark Conference, at 9-4 in the league, 18-6 overall and 17-6 in-region. The Greyhounds are hoping that a 20-win season would get them in the playoffs.

“Here you have to hit the floor running and be strong from the get-go,” Lancaster says. “But it’s easier to get them going now because they understand that every game is important.”

The get-go wasn’t Aurora’s strongest part of the season by any stretch. Already down a starter before the season even opened, the Spartans lost starting point guard Dusty Magee with 13 minutes remaining on opening night at Wartburg. Up 33-30 at the time, Aurora was outscored 33-21 the rest of the way and lost 63-54.

“We didn’t have time to think about it; we just had to throw someone in there,” said Lancaster. “The next night we were playing a good team on a neutral site, UW-Eau Claire and beat them, giving us lots of confidence.”

Aurora later lost its second-string and third-string point guard, playing forward Lance Robinson at the point for a December conference game against Wisconsin Lutheran, a fellow Pool B contender now at 17-5 overall.

“I think we’re a stronger team now,” says Lancaster. “We haven’t reached midseason form yet in terms of chemistry.”

One of the reasons for that is the other reason why Aurora struggled early on – senior center Mike Leonard had just one semester of eligibility remaining, meaning he sat out the first semester. Freshman Skyler Ormsbee started in his place.

One thing that Aurora hasn’t lacked is Larry Welton. The forward we profiled back in his freshman season of 2004-05, battling back from Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma has turned into a 2,000-point scorer and two-time All-American. He’s averaging 22.5 points per game in his senior season and has developed his game all around.

“I think he’s gotten stronger, and his three-point shooting is good although his numbers (30.2 percent) are not as strong this year,” says Lancaster. “I think his ballhandling has gotten a bit better. His numbers have slightly increased even though teams are geared to stop him.”

Welton isn’t the vocal leader on this club – that role is filled by fellow senior forward Doug Lambert and junior guard Chad Trudo – but he’s a leader by example. “He’s a gamer, loves to play; he’s a very hard practice player and competes hard but not your typical captain,” says Lancaster.

“There wasn’t anyone happier when Mike Leonard scored 21 points and had 20 rebounds the other night (in an 88-85 win against Wisconsin Lutheran). I think he’s had a game where he had 39 and followed by 27 and he asked, ‘am I shooting too much?’ I said ‘I’ve never seen you take a bad shot.’”

Nationally, everyone else is overshadowed by Welton, but Aurora wouldn’t even be in the playoff discussion if it weren’t for Lambert. He scored 23 points in a Valentine’s Day win against Wisconsin Lutheran, 18 of them in the final 10 minutes of the game and overtime, as well as a tip-in at the buzzer to beat Benedictine on Jan. 30.

“He’s really worked hard on his game and rounding out his game on the court. He’s a leader for us, a fierce competitor. He’s jumped up and had some 20-point ballgames and won some games for us.”

It’s not been smooth sailing for Aurora, however, even at full strength. Back-to-back losses to Milwaukee Engineering and Marian on Feb. 2 and 9 dropped the Spartans to 16-5 overall and put an end to their 12-0 conference start.

“I consider Marian to be one of the toughest places to play in our conference. They had a good matchup defensively for Welton and we came out on the short end there. We’d had three games in a row on the road and ended with a game at Benedictine, our biggest rival, that was an overtime game and we got a buzzer to win it. So it might’ve been a letdown.

Despite the bubble experience, Lancaster doesn’t have much to pass along to fellow coaches in terms of coping. “All you can worry about is what you control. The games are scheduled. Focus on coaching your team and winning your ballgames and things will take care of themselves. Sometimes we’ve had a decent team left on the outside looking in but that happens. We just have to take care of business on the court.”

It’s a lot more comfortable for some other Pool B teams.

POISED FOR ANOTHER RUN: If any team in Pool B should feel comfortable in its NCAA playoff fate, it’s the Chapman women’s basketball team.

While teams from colder climates slog through the regular season and conference tournaments, it’s blue skies and sunny weather in Orange, Calif., where the Panthers finished the regular season 22-3, including a 15-3 regional record and a fourth-place standing in the latest West Regional rankings.

“Actually it’s raining this week,” reports coach Carol Jue. And while the Panthers are a near lock to make the NCAA tournament – they and Scranton are the only Pool B teams to be regionally ranked so far – Jue can’t help but fight off clouds of anxiety about missing the NCAA tournament.

Lauren Kamiyama and Chapman advanced one round in last year's tournament before running into a Howard Payne buzzsaw.

The Panthers have accomplished that feat each of Jue’s four previous seasons, but there are still nagging doubts about the Panthers’ postseason fate. After all, the Chapman men have never played in the NCAA tournament. And when Jue played in the SCIAC at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps in the early 1990s, even the conference champion wasn’t guaranteed a playoff berth. So the Panthers won’t rest easy until the selections are announced on Monday morning.

Still, it is very likely that those selections will include Chapman for the eighth consecutive season. The Panthers have won 10 in a row entering the western portion of the Division III Independent tournament at Nebraska Wesleyan. They went 9-1 against the SCIAC, including 5-0 against conference frontrunners Occidental, Redlands and La Verne.

Despite the Panther’s geographic isolation and lack of conference affiliation, Jue has done a good job assembling a schedule with relatively few non-Division III opponents. She credits her three years on the West regional ranking committee as an opportunity to learn the importance of scheduling regional opponents, even if that means traveling long distances to play teams early in the season before they begin conference play.

Equally impressive is the sustained success Panthers have had with their fast-paced style. “We want to tire people out at the 35-, 36-minute mark so they miss shots and make bad decisions,” notes Jue. The strategy is working – Chapman opponents have committed 689 turnovers (27.6 per game), 209 more than the Panthers.

The up-tempo style is partly designed to counter Chapman’s lack of size. The starting line-up includes 5-3 guard Linda Ly and 5-1 guard Lauren Kamiyama. Chapman has just player above six feet on its roster, 6-2 junior Andrijana Kerkez. In fact, Kerkez is the only player that Jue has ever had over six feet tall. But Ly and Kamiyama have both come up big. Ly averages 10.4 points per game and is one of Chapman’s better defenders. Jue describes Kamiyama, the team leader in assists (114) and steals (70), as the “heart and soul” of her team.

Should they make it in the tournament, the Panthers hope to get beyond the second round where they’ve fallen three of the past four years. Last year’s run ended abruptly in Brownwood, Texas, where Howard Payne dominated Chapman, 76-37. The Yellow Jackets shot 54.8 percent from the field and only turned the ball over once more than the Panthers (20 to 19).

But the Panthers can point to this season’s opener in which they played No. 2 Howard Payne much closer as a sign of progress. Chapman lost 70-61 but forced 33 turnovers while getting new players acquainted with Jue’s run-and-gun style. Jue cites consistency as the key to a deeper playoff run. “It’s not good enough to make the first or second round anymore. We need to stay focused in every game.”

Jue’s emphasis on consistency makes sense. After all, in a Pool B world whose unofficial motto is “you never know,” Chapman continues to be a model of reliable success.

NOT ON THE BUBBLE: As impressive as the record nine straight NCAA trips with at least one win might look that Maryville (Tenn.) has done so without an automatic qualifier makes the streak as much a hindrance as a benefit.

The No. 21 Scots (21-2) close out the regular season Saturday hosting Great South Athletic Conference foe Piedmont. The Lions (12-11) and national scoring figure Jake Baldwin are the only concern for Maryville at the moment. Thoughts of a 10th invite, and the location of those first two rounds, barely register on the team's radar.

"Our goals have been very short term. We wanted to get into the Top 25 and we were able to do that," said MC head coach Randy Lambert. "We want to keep our winning streak going and go undefeated in our conference and we have a chance to do that."

"Typically we never really look at what it takes to get into the (NCAA Tournament). We just take care of business one game at a time and if it happens it happens. To tell you the truth I don't know who is even in consideration. I really don't. I don't even know what schools make up Pool B this year."

While the seniors, who are 3-3 in the NCAAs, will mention hopes of getting into their fourth bid and a dream of earning the hosting rights the future it's mentioned only as an afterthought to consideration of the next line on the schedule.

"Maybe that contributes to the attitude. We know if we keep our regional losses to four or below that we have a good chance of qualifying," Lambert admits. "It was two tournaments ago that we were up close to five (losses) and we knew we were borderline."

Alex Bowers is one of two returning starters from last year's Maryville (Tenn.) team and leads the team with 15.7 points per game. Photo by Pat Coleman, D3sports.com

The Scots have won 14 consecutive games including wins over NAIA schools Covenant, King and Tennessee Wesleyan, and even knocked off D-II Carson-Newman. While the wins over the area scholarship schools adds feathers to the bonnet for recruiting the games have become as much schedule fillers for the geographically isolated program as anything else.

Despite the Scots' success and recent entrance into the polls naysayers point at a schedule that lacks any opponents from the ODAC or ASC and just one from the SCAC after Centre was unable to reschedule a postponed contest from November.

"I sort of get aggravated when people talk to me about our strength of schedule. We have some limitations," said Lambert when strength of schedule came up. "First and foremost we have a conference with four men's teams in it. I'm not happy with that. I want to do something about that. We've tried to do something about that. We've sought application into other conferences before.

"The second limitation is we're in the south region and the closest D-III school to us is Emory & Henry -- two and a half hours away. We're limited because of our location. That said, I'm willing to play anybody that will return the game. I've gone on D3hoops.com before and advertised, 'need south region games.' We're willing to travel anywhere if they're willing to return a game at Maryville and had no takers, none, zero."

Lambert traditionally spends late January and February downplaying the NCAA talk around the Cooper Center, but with a school-record win streak that has bested the 1991-92 Elite 8 squad the starless 10-deep lineup has the student section chanting "ten."

NOT TO B: On the other end of the Pool B spectrum is the Presidents’ Athletic Conference, which is getting an automatic bid this season for the first time. Last year’s tournament winner, Grove City, didn’t get into the NCAA Tournament. In 2006-07, the Wolverines upset Washington and Jefferson in the PAC Tournament Finals 60-58. Then, in the Eastern College Athletic Conference postseason tournament, a regional NIT-style event, Grove City fell to Penn State-Behrend 76-46.

“It’s probably really big for the players, even though the winner had always gone to the ECACs,” Grove City coach Steve Lamie said of playing for an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. “(There’s) definitely more excitement around campus and certainly in our locker room.”

Currently, the Wolverines (15-9, 8-3 PAC) are in second place. The top seed, Bethany (15-9, 10-2), has beaten Grove City twice during the regular season. The first meeting was a 73-53 setback at home for the Wolverines. At Bethany, Grove City dropped a 78-61 decision.

“The way we work the regular season, it’s really for seeding purposes for the conference tournament,” Lamie said. “The highest seed that’s left gets to host the games. It is important in that respect because you have home-court advantage and that’s what you’ve been playing for.

“Almost everything’s been determined,” he added. “We still have one game to go. We’re going to be the second seed and will play the seventh seed because the No. 1 team gets a bye. It’s also big because games are going to be Tuesday, Thursday (and) Saturday, so there is very little turnaround time and prep time for the tournament.”

On the non-conference part of the schedule, the Wolverines played against teams from the Ohio Athletic Conference (lost to Marietta and John Carroll) and the North Coast Athletic Conference (lost to Hiram) and many other powerful squads. They are hoping those lessons against strong conferences will help down the stretch.

“We played a fairly tough out-of-conference schedule,” Lamie said. “We played Juniata and they have a very similar record that we do. We played an NAIA school in Malone College. Two of the schools that we have in the conference now are NAIA/NCAA Division III provisional members, Geneva who has scholarships and so does St. Vincent. The talent level that we’re playing there has kind of steeled us for conference play.”

Prep time has not been a problem for one particular Wolverine. Senior guard Shawn Carr has been “Mr. Everything” for the Grove City program during his four years in the crimson and white. Currently, Carr leads the team in scoring and rebounding average. His three-point (.481, 64-of-133) and field goal (.478, 99-of-207) percentages rank him among the team leaders.

“He’s the one senior that has more experience than anybody else because he played significantly as a freshman and up through this year,” said Lamie. “(He’s) probably the most talented kid that we have. He plays his best during stretches of the game where we need him. He’s very hard to guard because he can shoot the three-point shot. That’s probably his forte. He’s already broken our record for a season, as well as for a career, but he’s also multi-dimensional.

“He’s just so selfless, which means when he is playing well and people are trying to key on him, he distributes the ball,” Lamie added. “We have other guys that can hit the open shot or can drive. He just makes us a complete team because of his talent package.”

Playing in 22 of the team’s 24 games this year, Carr averages better than 14 points and five rebounds per game. Although his 6-foot-1, 175-pound frame is not ideal for rebounding against taller opponents and from a difficult position on the floor, Carr has more than made the most of his size.

“I’ve never had a guard like that in my 10 years here as the head coach,” Lamie said of Carr. “I think the other players relax when he plays because we know we have a real consistent outside scoring threat. He’s been consistent throughout the year. He’ll have maybe a bad half, shootingwise, but his total game complement has always been consistent. For me, I have tremendous confidence in him. Team confidence is so much a part of what he gives us.”

Belief in the team concept and the ability to win with defense are two key factors for any tournament run. For Grove City’s style of offense, confidence is the most important thing.

“It’s always our outside shooting,” said Lamie. “If we can be consistent with that, not that we totally rely on it, but we’re looking for open outside shots and we have to hit those.

“The other thing is consistent defense,” he added. “Something that we’ve relied on all year and probably in my tenure here is just being consistently good at field goal percentage defense. If we can hold people down in the low 40s, we think that we have a chance to win.

PLAN AHEAD ON GAMES TO WATCH: If you haven't gotten your share of good basketball games this season, then it is time to start planning for next week. Here are what could be some of the more exciting conference tournaments worth getting to in person or via the Web.

We start with a conference where both the men's and women's tournaments could keep many on the edge of their seats: the SCAC.

SCAC men: Sure, the conference leader, No. 2 Centre, has won 21 in a row. But there are some very good teams sitting immediately behind the Colonels in Millsaps and DePauw, while Oglethorpe and Trinity (Texas) have legitimate chances of winning the SCAC. Centre is the obvious favorite, but DePauw nearly upset Centre last week and the Colonels needed overtime to beat both Trinity and Millsaps this season.

SCAC women: DePauw, Oglethorpe and Trinity are separated by just two games. DePauw is unbeaten in league play. Oglethorpe beat Trinity at home in their only meeting of the season and if both teams get through the first round, they will play each other with a trip to the SCAC championship game on the line.

WIAC men: This one tends to be written in pen every year. UW-Stevens Point's recent dismantling of UW-Whitewater reminded us the Warhawks were routed on their home court as the No. 1 seed in 2001 by bottom seed UW-Stout, 90-49. Should the first round hold true to form, UW-Stevens Point, UW-Whitewater, UW-Platteville, and UW-Oshkosh would be facing off in the semifinals. The conference champion is the only team sure to be in the NCAA tournament but a win in the semis will give another team a quality win, likely a win against a regionally ranked opponent. And don't count out the bottom four, considering UW-Superior just beat UW-Platteville this past weekend.

CCIW men: At one point Wheaton (Ill.) and Carthage each led the conference standings, while Augustana tripped early in the season. And Illinois Wesleyan has surprised everyone with its current No. 2 standing; the Titans were picked to finish seventh. So who is going to win? While Augustana seems to be in the driver’s seat with the top seeding and thus homecourt advantage in the four-team tournament, they were recently beaten by the now No. 4 Wheaton, the only loss for the Titans in the last nine games. The CCIW could very easily get three bids into the NCAA Tournament, but a loss at end of the regular season and in the CCIW Tournament could pop a few bubbles.

ODAC men: The October consensus was this was Guilford’s to lose. While this is still true for the top seeded Quakers, Randolph-Macon, Virginia Wesleyan, and Roanoke all have legitimate chances. Washington and Lee, Hampden-Syndey, and Bridgewater could all pull off first-round and maybe even second round upsets. Just last season, Hampden-Sydney made a run to win the ODAC tournament and get into the NCAA’s. In a conference that has seen some surprising wins all season long, the ODAC could get three teams in the NCAA Tournament again.

Little East men: For much of the season, there seemed to be no one that could beat UMass-Dartmouth, but two conference losses have put them in a tie for first in the conference with Rhode Island College. Should the Corsairs and the Anchormen meet in the championship game, the home court may not be an advantage. The two teams have won on the opposition's home court this season. But don't count out the two teams in third and fourth. Keene State was the first team to beat Mass-Dartmouth this season. Southern Maine has been the other surprise of this conference and may play spoiler role.

NJAC women: At a glance one might notice Kean with its 22-2 overall record and you might assume they will win. But William Paterson is also 10-2 in the league, leading the conference's North Division, and owns a three point victory on the road at Kean earlier this season. Kean also lost recently to the team tied with then in the South, New Jersey. So, this isn't going to be a cakewalk.

Tune in to Hoopsville on Sundays during the basketball season, as Dave is joined by players, coaches, and regional reporters from around the nation.

If you have a tip or note, send it to atn@d3hoops.com.

Previous columns
2007-08 columns
March 6: Faith restored
Feb. 27: John Jay, Cinderella
Feb. 21: No safety net
Feb. 14: Ursinus better enough
Feb. 8: Hope-TMC on collision course
Jan. 31: Plattsburgh's big shot
Jan. 24: UMD answers call
Jan. 18: Like Bosko, like son
Jan. 11: Keystone stakes
Dec. 13: Unstoppable
Dec. 7: UWW aiming deeper
Nov. 30: Coach's shadow lingers
Nov. 15: Strong duo
2006-07 columns
2005-06 columns
2004-05 columns
2003-04 columns
2002-03 columns
2001-02 columns

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